Ladera Ranch Real Estate

Existing-home sales rose to near-record levels in March

2005-04-25T18:47:00.000-07:00

Existing-home sales rose to near-record levels in March with a continuation of strong home price gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 1.0 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate* of 6.89 million from an upwardly revised pace of 6.82 million in February. March sales were the third highest level on record, and were 4.9 percent above the 6.57 million-unit pace in March 2004. The record was a sales rate of 7.02 million in June 2004, followed by 6.98 million in November 2004.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said economic improvements have been supporting the housing sector. “With mortgage interest rates remaining historically low, gains in the labor market and economic growth appear to have lifted the confidence of home buyers,” he said. “There’s no question there is a strong demand for housing from a growing population.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $195,000 in March, up 11.4 percent from March 2004 when the median price was $175,000. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

NAR President Al Mansell, CEO of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Salt Lake City, said this is the third consecutive month in which home prices have experienced double-digit annual gains. “Although there are solid fundamentals underlying the strength of the housing market, we’d really like to see a bigger supply of homes so people don’t feel pressured when making purchase decisions or contract offers,” he said. “Since housing is a long-term investment, it’s important for buyers to work with a professional who can guide them through the transaction process with a full understanding of all of the alternatives.”

Total housing inventory levels fell 0.2 percent at the end of March to 2.33 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.93 percent in March, up from 5.63 percent in February; the rate was 5.45 percent in March 2004.

Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales slipped 0.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 845,000 units in March from a level of 846,000 units in February. Last month’s sales activity was 7.0 percent above the 790,000-unit pace in March 2004. The median condo price was $206,800, up 15.9 percent from the same month a year ago. Condo sales last month accounted for 12.3 percent of market activity.

Single-family home sales rose 1.2 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.04 million from a level of 5.97 million in February. Last month’s sales activity was 4.5 percent above the 5.78 million-unit pace in March 2004. The median single-family home price was $193,600 in March, up 11.3 percent from a year earlier.

Regionally, total existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 2.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.55 million units in March, and were 3.3 percent above March 2004. The median price in the Midwest was $159,000, up 11.2 percent from a year earlier.

Existing-home sales in the West increased 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.63 million units in March, and were 5.8 percent higher than the same month a year ago. The median existing-home price in the West was $289,000, up 18.9 percent from March 2004.

The home resale pace in the South rose 0.4 percent from February to an annual rate of 2.57 million units in March, and was 4.9 percent higher than March 2004. The median price of an existing home in the South was $169,000, which was 7.0 percent higher than a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Northeast held even at an annual pace of 1.14 million units in March, and were 5.6 percent above the level of a year ago. The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $242,000, up 14.7 percent from March 2004.

Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – nearly 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions that are fairly common in the new-home sales series.

Existing-home sales for April will be released May 24. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be on May 2 and the forecast will be revised May 9.

Existing-home sales slipped in February

2005-04-06T12:06:00.000-07:00

Existing-home sales slipped in February but remained above year-ago levels, while home prices rose at double-digit rates, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, were down 0.4 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate* of 6.79 million from an upwardly revised pace of 6.82 million in January. Last month’s sales activity was 6.1 percent above the 6.40 million-unit pace in February 2004.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said the housing market appears to be in the early stages of settling down. “In essence, home sales were surging at unprecedented levels for most of last year,” he said. “The cooling we expect in sales this year means we’ll be transitioning from a white-hot housing market into a very strong market that still favors home sellers, but should become more balanced as the year progresses.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $191,000 in February, up 11.0 percent from February 2004 when the median price was $172,000. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.NAR President Al Mansell, CEO of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Salt Lake City, said there simply aren’t enough homes available for sale. “The supply of homes on the market is tight, so prices continue to rise faster than historic norms,” he said. “The long-term population growth and demographic trends show the fundamental demand for housing will remain historically strong going forward, so housing will continue to support the U.S. economy and will remain the soundest investment most families will ever make.”

Total housing inventory levels rose 10.7 percent at the end of February with 2.38 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace – January was a record low 3.8-month supply. For a market to be fairly balanced between buyers and sellers, a supply in the range of 6 months is required.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.63 percent in February, down from 5.71 percent in January; it was 5.64 percent in February 2004.

Condominium and cooperative housing sales last month accounted for 12.5 percent of market activity. Existing condo sales slipped 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate* of 848,000 units in February from a record level of 858,000 units in January. Last month’s sales activity was 10.4 percent above the 768,000-unit pace in February 2004. The median condo price was $210,700, up 20.5 percent from the same month a year ago.

Single-family home resales eased 0.3 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate* of 5.94 million units from a level of 5.96 million in January. Last month’s sales activity was 5.5 percent above the 5.63 million-unit pace in February 2004. The median single-family home price was $188,200 in February, up 9.4 percent from a year earlier.

Regionally, total existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 4.6 percent from January to a pace of 1.14 million units in February, and were 4.6 percent above the level in February 2004. The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $251,000, up 18.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 2.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.50 million units in February, and were 4.2 percent above a year earlier. The median price in the Midwest was $156,000, up 9.1 percent from February 2004.

The home resale pace in the West held even at an annual rate of 1.59 million units in February and was 6.7 percent stronger than February 2004. The median existing-home price in the West was $279,000, up 16.7 percent from the same month a year ago.Existing-home sales in the South fell 3.4 percent from January to an annual rate of 2.56 million units in February, but were 8.0 percent higher than a year ago. The median price of an existing home in the South was $164,000, which was 7.2 percent higher than February 2004.

Home Sales to Stay in Record Territory

2005-03-15T09:23:00.000-08:00

Both new- and existing-home sales will remain historically strong this year while the pace of price appreciation should ease, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Sales of existing-homes, including single-family, condo and co-op, are expected to decline 3.2 percent to a total of 6.57 million* in 2005 from a record 6.78 million last year. New-home sales are seen at 1.13 million this year, 5.9 percent below a record of 1.20 million in 2004; the projections for both new- and existing-home sales in 2005 would be the second best on record. Housing starts are forecast to slip 0.7 percent to 1.94 million units in 2005.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said home sales are starting to ease to more sustainable levels. "After setting four consecutive record years, the housing market is due for a breather," he said. "As mortgage interest rates creep up and home sales slow a bit, we should see a better balance between home buyers and sellers – that will take some of the pressure off of home prices."

Lereah expects the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to gradually increase to 6.7 percent by the end of the year; for all of 2005 the rate should average 6.2 percent.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types should grow 5.6 percent this year to $195,500. The median new-home price is expected to rise 3.9 percent in 2005 to $228,300. Appreciation last year was 9.3 percent for all existing homes, and 12.6 percent for new homes.

"In January we set a record low for the supply of existing homes available for sale," said Al Mansell, NAR president and CEO of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Salt Lake City. "Until the market gets closer to equilibrium between home buyers and sellers, prices will continue to rise faster than normal." Typically, home prices rise at the rate of inflation plus 1 to 2 percentage points.

Inflation should stay modest with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.6 percent in 2005. The U.S. gross domestic product is expected to grow 4.0 percent this year, while the unemployment rate should average 5.1 percent.

Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 3.8 percent in 2005, while the consumer confidence index should rise to 107 during the second half the year.

Sales Hold Steady for January '05

2005-02-28T20:02:00.000-08:00

Existing-home sales, revised with improved methodology, were essentially flat in January but remained at historically high levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 0.1 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate* of 6.80 million units from a level of 6.81 million in December. Last month's sales activity was 13.7 percent above the 5.98 million-unit pace in January 2004.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said January home sales were buoyed by the condo sector. "A slight decline in single-family home sales was offset by a record monthly level of condo sales, which just came off its ninth consecutive record year," he said.

Lereah noted this is the first monthly report in the revised existing-home sales series. "NAR took the initiative to update and improve the modeling for the existing-home sales series to more accurately reflect the growth and changes in the housing market," he said.Monthly revisions have been made back through the benchmark year of 1999, with additional revisions made back to 1989 using improved methodology. In addition to better modeling, some of the changes result from previously overestimating the number of for-sale-by-owner transactions (FSBOs), which have shown a sustained decline.

"These changes help to make the existing-home sales series a better measure of actual marketplace activity," he said. "When the existing-home sales series was created in 1968, condos weren't even on the horizon in terms of an important market share. In fact, we didn't start tracking condos until 1981 after baby boomers started to fuel demand for them in the late 1970s."

When it was decided to improve the methodology for reporting home sales, following revisions by the U.S. Census Bureau and with input from the Federal Reserve Board, it was only natural to add condo sales.

As a result of the changes, the series for existing single-family sales was revised downward by 10.6 percent for the benchmark year of 1999 – these changes affect the entire series from 1989 though 2004. For example, single-family sales originally were reported at 6,675,000 for 2004; the improved methodology now shows a total of 5,964,000, still a record. Although data has been downwardly revised, the overall characterization of the resale market in terms of historic comparisons and relative changes are consistent with previously reported data. Major government indicators undergo similar periodic changes.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $189,000 in January, up 10.5 percent from January 2004 when the median price was $171,000. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

NAR President Al Mansell, CEO of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Salt Lake City, said strong price growth is being driven by a shortage of homes available for sale. "The demand for homes remains in record territory, but the supply of homes on the market set an all-time low in January," he said. "The growth in home equity is adding to housing wealth and helping the overall economy, yet low mortgage interest rates are keeping homes within reach of buyers in most of the country."

Total housing inventory levels declined 5.8 percent at the end of January with 2.09 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 3.7-month supply at the current sales pace – a record low.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.71 percent in January, down from 5.75 percent in December; it was 5.71 percent in January 2004. "Aside from a handful of months over the last two years, you have to go back to the mid-1960s to see mortgage interest rates where they are today," Mansell said. January was the sixth-lowest month on record since Freddie Mac started tracking interest rates in 1971.

Condominium and cooperative housing sales accounted for 12.6 percent of transactions in January. Existing condo sales rose 2.3 percent to a record seasonally adjusted annual rate* of 858,000 units in January from a level of 839,000 in December. Last month's sales activity was 22.4 percent above the 701,000-unit pace in January 2004. The median condo price was $203,700, up 15.1 percent from the same month a year ago.

Single-family home resales declined 0.5 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate* of 5.94 million units from a level of 5.97 million in December. Last month's sales activity was 12.5 percent above the 5.28 million-unit pace in January 2004. The median single-family home price was $186,900 in January, up 9.8 percent from January 2004.

The home resale pace in the West rose 0.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.59 million units in January and was 16.9 percent stronger than January 2004. The median existing-home price in the West was $277,000, up 16.4 percent from the same month a year earlier.In the Northeast, existing-home sales declined 3.5 percent from December to a pace of 1.09 million units in January, but were 11.2 percent above the level in January 2004. The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $231,000, up 9.5 percent from a year ago.

Homes in the Midwest were reselling at an annual rate of 1.47 million units in January, down 5.2 percent from December, but were 10.5 percent above January 2004. The median price in the Midwest was $151,000, up 8.6 percent from a year earlier.

Sales of existing condominiums and cooperatives hit record

2005-02-24T11:39:00.000-08:00

Sales of existing condominiums and cooperatives hit their ninth consecutive annual record in 2004, while the pace of sales activity in the fourth quarter eased but remained the third highest quarter on record, according to the National Association of Realtors®. There were a total of 970,000 existing condo and co-op sales last year, up 8.0 percent from the previous record of 898,000 units in 2003.

The sales pace slipped 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter to a seasonally adjusted annual rate* of 972,000 units from a 1.00 million-unit pace in the third quarter. Sales were 3.4 percent above the 940,000-unit level of sales activity in the fourth quarter of 2003; quarterly records were set in the second and third quarters of 2004.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said the sales performance underscores the significance of condo sales in the overall housing market. "The condo market has clearly matured over the last decade, accounting for a market share almost as big as the new home market, and has been appreciating faster than single-family homes," he said. Given this growth, NAR will now include condo sales in its monthly track of overall existing home sales, beginning with the January report.

In the fourth quarter, the median existing condo/co-op price was $203,200, which is 16.7 percent higher than a year ago. The median is a typical market price where half of the units sold for more and half sold for less. By comparison, the typical single-family home cost $187,500 in the fourth quarter, 8.8 percent higher than a year earlier.

NAR President Al Mansell, CEO of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Salt Lake City, said the reputation of condos as an investment has changed dramatically. "In much of the 1980s and early 90s, condos earned a reputation for slow price growth, in many cases because there was an oversupply on the market," he said. "With the maturation of this market segment, condos have been appreciating faster than single-family homes for the last four years. In the past, affordability was a bigger factor in condo sales – now, lifestyle choices have emerged as a driving force in their growing popularity."

For all of 2004, the median existing condo price was $193,600, up 17.0 percent from a median of $164,100 in 2003. At the same time, the typical single-family resale home price rose 8.3 percent to $184,100.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage was 5.73 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 5.89 percent in the third quarter; it was 5.92 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.

In the Northeast, condo/co-op resales rose 1.2 percent between the third and fourth quarters to a 168,000-unit pace, and were 9.1 percent above the fourth quarter of 2003. The median price in the Northeast was $234,800, up 23.0 percent from a year ago.

Existing condo and co-op sales in the Midwest held steady in the fourth quarter at a level of 121,000 units, unchanged from the third quarter, and were 8.0 percent higher than a year earlier. The median resale condo price in the Midwest was $185,700, up 7.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 2003.

In the South, condo/co-op resale activity slipped 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter to a 442,000-unit pace; however, this was 2.8 percent higher than the same quarter in 2003. The median price in the South was $172,000, which was 23.0 percent higher than a year ago.

In the West, the sales pace of condos and co-ops fell 7.3 percent from the third quarter to an annual rate of 241,000 units in the fourth quarter, and was 1.2 percent below the sales rate during the same period in 2003. The median price in the West was $246,100, up 14.5 percent from a year earlier.

"Condo sales in the West suffered from an unusual shortage of units available for sale," Lereah noted. "Without this inventory problem, national sales may have held up in the fourth quarter."

The Real Estate Market Has Changed

2005-02-20T09:31:00.000-08:00

The 9 Step System to Get Your Home Sold Fast and For Top Dollar

Selling your home is one of the most important steps in your life. This 9 step system will give you the tools you need to maximize your profits, maintain control, and reduce the stress that comes with the home-selling process:

1. Know why you’re selling, and keep it to yourself.The reasons behind your decision to sell affect everything from setting a price to deciding how much time and money to invest in getting your home ready for sale. What’s more important to you: the money you walk away with, or the length of time your property is on the market? Different goals will dictate different strategies.

However, don’t reveal your motivation to anyone else or they may use it against you at the negotiating table. When asked, simply say that your housing needs have changed.

2. Do your homework before setting a price.Settling on an offering price shouldn’t be done lightly. Once you’ve set your price, you’ve told buyers the absolute maximum they have to pay for your home, but pricing too high is as dangerous as pricing too low. Remember that the average buyer is looking at 15-20 homes at the same time they are considering yours. This means that they have a basis of comparison, and if your home doesn’t compare favorably with others in the price range you’ve set, you won’t be taken seriously by prospects or agents. As a result, your home will sit on the market for a long time and, knowing this, new buyers on the market will think there must be something wrong with your home.

3. Do your homework.(In fact, your agent should do this for you). Find out what homes in your own and similar neighborhoods have sold for in the past 6-12 months, and research what current homes are listed for. That’s certainly how prospective buyers will assess the worth of your home.

4. Find a good real estate agent to represent your needs.Nearly three-quarters of homeowners claim that they wouldn’t use the same realtor who sold their last home. Dissatisfaction boils down to poor communication which results in not enough feedback, lower pricing and strained relations. Another FREE report entitled 10 Questions to Ask Before You Hire an Agent” gives you the straight, to-the-point questions you should be asking when you interview agents who want to list your home. You can obtain a FREE copy of this report from my website.

5. Maximize your home’s sales potential.Each year, corporate North America spends billions on product and packaging design. Appearance is critical, and it would be foolish to ignore this when selling your home.

You may not be able to change your home’s location or floor plan, but you can do a lot to improve its appearance. The look and feel of your home generates a greater emotional response than any other factor. Clean like you’ve never cleaned before. Pick up, straighten, unclutter, scrub, scour and dust. Fix everything, no matter how insignificant it may appear. Present your home to get a wow” response from prospective buyers.

Allow the buyers to imagine themselves living in your home The decision to buy a home is based on emotion, not logic. Prospective buyers want to try on your home just like they would a new suit of clothes. If you follow them around pointing out improvements or if your decor is so different that it’s difficult for a buyer to strip it away in his or her mind, you make it difficult for them to feel comfortable enough to imagine themselves an owner.

6. Make it easy for prospects to get information on your home.You may be surprised to know that some marketing tools that most agents use to sell homes (eg. traditional open houses) are actually not very effective. In fact only 1% of homes are sold at an open house.

Furthermore, the prospects calling for information on your home probably value their time as much as you do. The last thing they want to be subjected to is either a game of telephone tag with an agent, or an unwanted sales pitch. Make sure the ads your agent places for your home are attached to a 24 hour prerecorded hotline with a specific ID# for your home which gives buyers access to detailed information about your property day or night 7 days a week without having to talk to anyone. It’s been proven that 3 times as many buyers call for information on your home under this system. And remember, the more buyers you have competing for your home the better, because it sets up an auction-like atmosphere that puts you in the driver’s seat.

7. Know your buyer.In the negotiation process, your objective is to control the pace and set the duration. What is your buyer’s motivation? Does s/he need to move quickly? Does s/he have enough money to pay you your asking price? Knowing this information gives you the upper hand in the negotiation because you know how far you can push to get what you want.

8. Make sure the contract is complete.For your part as a seller, make sure you disclose everything. Smart sellers proactively go above and beyond the laws to disclose all known defects to their buyers in writing. If the buyer knows about a problem, s/he can’t come back with a lawsuit later on.

Make sure all terms, costs and responsibilities are spelled out in the contract of sale, and resist the temptation to diverge from the con-tract. For example, if the buyer requests a move-in prior to closing, just say no. Now is not the time to take any chances of the deal falling through.

9. Don’t move out before you sell.Studies have shown that it is more difficult to sell a home that is vacant because it looks forlorn, forgotten, simply not appealing. It could even cost you thousands. If you move, you’re also telling buyers that you have a new home and are probably highly motivated to sell fast. This, of course, will give them the advantage at the negotiating table.

Existing-Home Sales Hit Record in November

2005-01-11T05:15:00.000-08:00

Low interest rates helped the market for existing single-family home sales to set the highest monthly pace on record in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales increased 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate* of 6.94 million units in November from an upwardly revised pace of 6.76 million units in October. Last month's sales activity was 13.2 percent above the 6.13-million unit level in November 2003. The previous record was 6.92 million in June 2004.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said low interest rates get much of the credit. "Mortgage interest rates dropped a quarter of a percentage point in late summer and then stabilized," he said. "Coupled with a growing labor market and a rising economy, this created optimal conditions for the housing sector."

Lereah expects economic conditions in 2005 will be comparable with this year. "Our forecast for the housing market is for a continuation of strong home sales, although down a little from the record-setting pace of 2004," he said. "We think slower sales will help to create a better balance between home buyers and sellers, but with tight inventories of homes available for sale, price appreciation hasn't slowed yet."

The national median existing-home price was $188,200 in November, up 10.4 percent from November 2003 when the median price was $170,500. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

Housing inventory levels at the end of November rose 2.1 percent from October to a total of 2.48 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace.

NAR President Al Mansell, CEO of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Salt Lake City, said the good news is that mortgage interest rates remain historically low. "Although mortgage interest rates should rise modestly over the course of the next year, they'll stay low enough to preserve favorable market conditions," he said. "Low interest rates are helping new buyers to enter the market. This growth in homeownership is stimulating all steps of the housing ladder by creating a ready market for existing owners wishing to make a trade, and underscores the value of housing as an investment."

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.73 percent in November, almost unchanged from 5.72 percent in October; it was 5.93 percent in November 2003.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the West jumped 6.5 percent to a record annual rate of 1.97 million units in November, and were 16.6 percent higher than November 2003. The median existing-home price in the West was $274,000, up 13.3 percent from the same month a year earlier.

The home resale pace in the South rose 1.8 percent in November to a record level of 2.83 million units, and was 15.5 percent above a year ago. The median price of an existing home in the South was $170,000, which was 10.1 percent higher than November 2003.Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 0.7 percent in November to an annual rate of 1.39 million units, and were 9.4 percent above November 2003. The median price in the Midwest was $151,200, up 6.6 percent from the same month a year earlier.

Existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 1.3 percent in November to a pace of 740,000 units, but were 4.2 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $226,700, up 17.3 percent from November 2003.

The nation's population grew by 1.0 percent

2004-12-22T21:45:00.000-08:00

The nation's population grew by 1.0 percent (2.9 million people) between July 1, 2003, and July 1, 2004, to 293.7 million, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. With a growth rate of 4.1 percent, Nevada ranked first among states for the 18th consecutive year.

Four nearby states joined Nevada on the list of the nation's 10 fastest-growing: Arizona (second), Idaho (fourth), Utah (seventh) and New Mexico (10th). The remaining top 10 fastest-growing states are all coastal: Florida (third), Georgia (fifth), Texas (sixth), Delaware (eighth) and North Carolina (ninth).

North Carolina and New Mexico replaced California and Hawaii on the list of the top 10 fastest-growing states this year.

Of the 10 fastest-growing states from 2003 to 2004, five are in the West and five in the South. The South now accounts for 36 percent of the nation's total population, with the West comprising 23 percent, the Midwest 22 percent and the Northeast 19 percent.

California remained the most populous state in the nation with 35.9 million people in 2004. The second and third most populous states were Texas (22.5 million) and New York (19.2 million).

Other highlights:

The nation's 10 most populous states accounted for 54 percent of the nation's population on July 1, 2004.
The 10 fastest-growing states accounted for 49 percent of the national growth from 2003 to 2004.
Of the 10 most populous states in 2004, three (New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey) are in the Northeast, three (Illinois, Ohio, Michigan) in the Midwest, three (Texas, Florida, Georgia) in the South and one (California) in the West.
While the South had the largest numerical increase in population among regions from 2003 to 2004 (1.5 million), the West recorded the fastest rate of growth (1.5 percent).

The population estimate for Puerto Rico for July 1, 2004, was 3.9 million, up about 17,000 since July 1, 2003. Puerto Rico's rate of increase was 0.4 percent.

California's Housing Affordability Index at 19 percent in October

2004-12-15T23:00:00.000-08:00

California's Housing Affordability Index at 19 percent in October; down six points from year ago

The percentage of households in California able to afford a median-priced home stood at 19 percent in October, a 6 percentage-point decrease compared with the same period a year ago when the Index was at 25 percent, according to a report released today by the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.). The October Housing Affordability Index (HAI) was unchanged from September, when it also stood at 19 percent.

C.A.R.’s monthly housing affordability index measures the percentage of households that can afford to purchase a median-priced home in California. C.A.R. also reports housing affordability indexes for regions and select counties within the state. The index is the most fundamental measure of housing well-being in the state.

The minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $460,370 in Californiain October was $106,680, based on an average effective mortgage interest rate of 5.70 percent and assuming a 20 percent downpayment. The minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home was up from $88,860 in October 2003, when the median price of a home was $379,120 and the prevailing interest rate was 5.83 percent.

The minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $187,000 in the U.S. in October 2004 was $43,330.

At 42 percent, the High Desert region was the most affordable C.A.R. region in the state, followed by the Central Valley region at 26 percent. The Santa Barbara region was the least affordable in the state at 9 percent, followed by the Monterey region at 11 percent.

C.A.R.'s November 2004 sales and median price report for the state and regions within the state will be released on Dec. 22.

Housing Market To End Year on Strong Note

2004-12-15T09:15:00.000-08:00

Stronger than expected home sales and higher median prices have caused the National Association of Realtors® to revise upward its year-end forecast. Existing-home sales are expected to jump 7.9 percent to 6.58 million* in 2004, well above last year's record. For 2005, NAR projects 6.38 million sales, which would be the second highest level on record.

The national median existing-home price is projected to rise 7.9 percent to $182,500 for the year. The median new-home price should increase 8.9 percent to $214,600.

New-home sales will rise 8.9 percent to 1.18 million this year and 1.13 million are forecast for 2005, just shy of the record expected this year. Housing starts are seen at 1.95 million this year, the highest level since 1978; housing construction is projected at 1.87 million units in 2005.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said that some of the backup in housing demand is being met. "We're setting our fourth consecutive record year for existing-home sales, and even with strong fundamentals such as household growth, low interest rates and an improving economy, we simply can't set records every year," Lereah said. "Given the sharp rise over last year's record, a lot of buyers have found the home they've been looking for and we can expect a bit of a breather in 2005, which will remain a historically strong year."Lereah predicts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage should rise slowly but average only 6.4 percent next year.

In 2005, Lereah expects the median existing-home price to rise 5.0 percent and the typical new home price to grow by 5.8 percent. "The slowing rate of price growth will be good news for first-time buyers, but since inflation is expected to remain modest, home prices will still be rising a little faster than the historic norm of 1-to-2 percentage points above the rate of inflation," Lereah said.

NAR forecasts tame inflation with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2005. The U.S. gross domestic product should grow by 4.4 percent for all of 2004 and another 4.0 percent next year. The unemployment rate is projected to decline to 5.1 percent by the second half of next year.

Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to increase 3.1 percent this year and 3.9 percent in 2005, while the consumer confidence index should rise to 105 in 2005.More detailed information about NAR's economic outlook, as well as other analysis of real estate industry statistics, can be found in the December issue of NAR's Real Estate Outlook: Market Trends and Insights. The publication may be purchased by calling 800/874-6500.

The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Binding Arbitration

2004-12-14T21:00:00.000-08:00

Binding arbitration, a little noticed clause in many agreements and contracts, strips consumers of their fundamental rights, including the right to sue individually or join a class-action suit if they have a problem with a company.

Under binding arbitration, a consumer can be forced to pay thousands of dollars upfront to pursue a complaint, travel thousands of miles to a location of the company's choosing for the hearing, argue their case before an arbitrator who depends on the company for future business and surrender such basic legal weapons as the right to discovery and the right to appeal a decision.

In some cases, the clause allows the company to sue the consumer while denying the consumer the right to sue the company.

Housing Wealth Has Greater Effect Than Stocks

2004-12-08T13:06:00.000-08:00

Housing wealth has a more immediate impact on consumer spending than stock wealth and has sustained the U.S. economy since the beginning of this decade, shows a new study produced by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University and Macroeconomic Advisers, LCC, and commissioned by the National Association of Realtors®.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said the study shows a large difference between the impact of housing wealth and stock wealth on consumer spending, particularly during the last economic downturn. "Aggressive cuts in short term interest rates at the beginning of the decade forestalled economic problems and led to record home sales and home equity borrowing," Lereah said. "Without the stimulus, housing's contribution to consumer spending would have been about half as great, the recession much worse and the recovery less robust."

A major finding in the study is that over time, consumers spend about five-and-a-half cents out of every dollar increase in both housing wealth and stock wealth. However, spending from housing wealth only takes about a year to reach 80 percent of its long-run effect, compared with nearly five years for stock wealth to have the same effect – likely because near-term gains in stock wealth could prove to be unsustainable.

"In other words, housing produces a quicker lift to the economy while home-price growth provides lasting benefits," Lereah said. "Homeowners are more confident of gains in housing wealth, so they spend more readily and quickly when they occur."

"Housing Wealth Effects," sponsored by NAR's National Center for Real Estate Research, reviewed a number of existing studies and developed new models to compare wealth effects. The study shows that expansionary monetary policy can provide a rapid and substantial lift to consumer spending under the right circumstances. While some investors pulled out of the stock market when values began to fall in 2000, a near 45-year low in interest rates allowed housing to help the economy through a soft spot.

Regarding speculation about the prospects of a housing price bubble, Lereah said that debt service costs are largely ignored and not well-understood. "In simple terms, over the last year monthly mortgage payments to buy a median-priced home would have taken about 18 percent of the typical family's income. In the early 1980s these costs exceeded 30 percent of family income, so we now have a fair amount of headroom," he said. "The fundamentals of a growing population, tight supply of homes available for sale and rising construction costs will support home prices moving forward."

Home price changes are far less volatile than stock values, but individual returns depend on market conditions in local areas. Between 1983 and 2003, the average deviation in annual value from national price trends in the top 100 metropolitan areas was only 4.7 percent. By contrast, stock values can rise and fall rapidly – even over the course of a single day. During the period of 2001 to 2003, housing contributed more than one-quarter to consumer spending in each of those years. About half of that boost was attributable to gains in housing wealth through equity withdrawals and realized capital gains, confirming that housing propped up the economy.
In the fourth quarter of 2003, home equity accounted for 19 percent of household wealth, slightly higher than the combination of stocks and mutual funds. However, homeownership is more widespread than ownership of stock and contributes more to the balance sheet of the typical household. Home equity exceeded the value of stock owned directly by households by $2.6 trillion.

Other findings include: About 6 in 10 homeowners have more home equity than stock wealth. Total housing consumption, operations, related goods and investment came to about 23.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product in 2003. Over the last 50 years, housing has hovered between one-fifth and one-quarter of GDP.

Housing wealth accounts for 36 percent of the nation's tangible assets. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board estimated the value of housing stock at $15.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2003. Late last year, the homeownership rate was 68 percent, but only 52 percent of households held stock – either directly or indirectly.

In 2001, the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances showed that the top 1 percent of stockholders controlled 33.5 percent of stock, while the top 1 percent of homeowners controlled 13 percent of home equity.

Lereah said homeownership has a larger effect than stocks on the typical household's finances. "The broader distribution of homeownership means that changes in stock wealth affect a much smaller share of households and mostly affects those with larger disposable incomes," he said. In addition, homeowners accumulate significantly more wealth than renters. Analysis shows a renter in 1984 would have accumulated $42,000 in net wealth by 1999. However, a typical owner household in 1984 would have accumulated $167,000 in the same timeframe. "Most of the differences between renter wealth and ownership wealth reflect the contribution that a leveraged investment in a home provides through appreciation in value, which has been exceptionally strong over the last three years," Lereah said. "Homeownership is unique in that it provides shelter in addition to being an investment that yields a financial return as values rise."

Housing is an attractive investment because it directly builds wealth through both home price appreciation and forced savings in the form of mortgage payments that reduce principal. "It is also appealing because it allows owners to tap into that wealth at favorable interest rates to finance other forms of investment and consumption," Lereah said.

Owners have the option of taking out a home equity loan or line of credit, or taking cash out while refinancing. In addition, when buying another property, they can keep some of the equity from their existing home and use only a portion as a downpayment on another. The findings in this study suggest that expansion of monetary policy – a lowering of interest rates – at the onset of weakness after an economic expansion can give the economy a significant lift. Conversely, a tightening could slow home sales and reduce equity borrowing, which could quickly act as a drag on consumer spending and slow the economy.

"Accommodative monetary policy through lower interest rates during periods of economic weakness can make the difference between a steep recession and a soft landing," Lereah said.

Ways to Maximize Your Property's Curb Appeal

2004-12-08T13:04:00.000-08:00

I've done it, and I'm sure Realtors experience it all the time: When a potential buyer says "There's no need to get out" when you drive up to a property that you intended to show them.

The buyer has already made up their mind based upon the curb appeal of the home.
There are two main goals to maximizing a home's curb appeal:

1. Remove or reduce the quantity of "red flags" in view from the curb. 2. Create the most enjoyable trip from the curb to the front door as possible.

Here are some ideas to consider:

1. A Visible Address is a Must
Make sure the address is clearly visible from the street. Preferably, the numbers should be in a horizontal line versus vertically, or on a diagonal line and be lit at night - at least while the home is listed.

2. Maximize the Front Door Appeal
The front door equals the mouth of that home's body. Energy must be able to find it easily and then enter. The trip from the street to the threshold should be easy to navigate; ie: no "trips" in sidewalk, no thorns grabbing you along the way, no cob webs to go through, no dead plants in pots along the way.

The actual front door should be clean and fresh. If there is a screen door, it must be in tip-top shape and dust-free. If the door is in shadow because of solar orientation, keep the porch light on. Add color and fresh items such as foliage to attract energy towards the door.
If the door is not visible from the street, hang a metal chime somewhere near the door on the non-hinged side of the door. The actual door should be able to open fully, and not stick or squeak. A welcome mat is always welcomed here. If there is a doorbell - it must work. If there is no doorbell, consider adding a knocker to the door.

3. Make the Plants Work for You
Nothing says "creepy" like ill-maintained plants. Their weak and droopy energy tells the story of how life will be if you buy this home! Plants should be clean, and their droppings picked up.
Plants can be up against the walls and foundation, but not "touching them." Trees touching the eaves and roof, and vines clinging to the walls takes away health energy from those living within the home. There should be no white flowers touching the building - long story - it's just a traditional feng shui thing. Happy, healthy, and colorful and well maintained plants say "someone cares," and "this home is capable of taking care of you."

If there are sick, weak, or poorly trimmed plants (I'm thinking of trees that have been "topped" and look like a big trunk with a few sprigs growing out of the top) they are distractions to buyers as well as weak energy and should be removed. In this case, less is definitely more.
If there is a tree, shrub, boulder or any other landscape item directly in line with the front door (say, within at least 50 feet or so,) it's best to have it removed. This subconsciously creates blocks with the home, as if it is hiding from the very people who want to buy it! It also makes the home struggle to hold health energy for those who live there. A gate is the exception here.

4. Have a Clearly Defined Edge Between Lawn and Planting Beds.
Grass growing into the planting beds not only create a maintenance problem, but it also shows up as lack of boundaries in life. Clearly define planting beds with mow strips (any material is fine) and you will help buyers subconsciously understand this home's front yard. They will subconsciously "feel safe."

5. Use Color to Your Advantage
Color can be an easy way to add energy to a home's curb appeal. Red attracts - use it when the door is out of view or the home seems "lost," or people have a hard time finding the home. Yellow evokes friendly and clear communication, green is simply the color of life, and blues are more introverted and quiet - perhaps what a home on a busy street needs. Orange is subjective, but can create boundaries and a healthy appetite! I would not usually recommend a lot of white.

6. Balance Offensive Neighboring Buildings and Landscape Issues
If there is a church, cemetery, funeral home, school, commercial building within the visual "neighborhood" of the home, try adding landscape screening to block these views. You may want to hide a mirror in the landscape facing the negative item in question with the intention of deflecting its energy away from your home. (No one has to see your secret cures to make them work!)

If the offensive building (or even a tree, or "T" of the street) is directly in line with your front door, hang a mirror above the door facing the item with the intention of pushing it away if you can't do anything about it (like removing the tree.)

If you have significantly taller buildings next to your home and your home is "in its shadow," apply a mirror on that side of the house and face it towards the taller building with the same "pushing away" intentions.

7. Clear the Clutter
Clutter is one of the more obvious "red flags" and should be removed immediately. Extra cars, pots full of dead plants, the kids bikes, garden tools, old holiday decorations (get the lights down!) all need to go. The trash cans should not be visible from the street. Basically, any "personal affects" other than a fresh plant-filled pot or a working water fountain should go.

8. Check Lighting Levels Both Day and Night
Landscape, security, and aesthetic lighting should be in good working order to put the home "in it's best light" for a potential buyer. If the home sits lower than the street, consider placing an uplight on each corner of the home, with the light pointing up at the eave. Keep this light on at all times (at least while the home is for sale.)

9. Attend to General Maintenance Issues
Peeling paint, dead spots in the yard, broken pickets in the fence, etc. will not give you that warm and fuzzy feeling as a buyer! Dripping hose bibs and broken irrigation heads won't either. The front facade and front yard MUST appear in good working order.

Also, take the five senses into consideration: If you can smell a compost pile - it has to go. If you can hear the train next door - cure it or any other offensive noise by hanging a chime between the house and the noise.

If You Have the Chance To Design the Front Yard From Scratch, Consider Shape and Element-balancing Characteristics of Walkways, Planting, and Other Front Yard Amenities

1. Consider free-form and undulating shapes (like sidewalks) and water element items in the front yard.
2. Make a "transition space" (like a porch) between the walk and the threshold to "slow down" the chi before entering the home.
3. Use color to your draw attention towards your door.
4. The sidewalk should connect the street and the door - not just the driveway and the door.
5. Create strong mow strips shape and lines within the landscape.
6. Appeal to all five senses.
7. New sod goes a long way to make the home look fresh.
8. A moving object like a flag, whirligig, chime, water fountain in the front yard can attract new buyers!